Will a U.S. president invoke the Insurrection Act by the end of 2028?

Will the Arctic September sea-ice minimum fall below 3.5 million square kilometers in any year through 2032?

Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election be held on schedule with electoral votes counted by January 6, 2029?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test explosion by the end of 2027?

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of criminal charges?

Will more than nine states possess nuclear weapons by the end of 2030?

If an NBER-dated U.S. recession begins by the end of 2027, will U-3 unemployment exceed 8% within 24 months of the business-cycle peak?

Will any EU member state have its Council voting rights suspended under Article 7 by the end of 2028?

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for president in 2028?

Will a G7 sovereign default on market debt or suffer a failed government bond auction by the end of 2028?

If AGI is confirmed by the end of 2030, will U.S. unemployment exceed 8% within 18 months of confirmation?

When will Anthropic restore general public access to Claude Fable 5?

Will METR report a frontier AI model with a 50%-success task time horizon above 40 hours by the end of 2027?

Will the US year-over-year CPI reach 5% or higher in any month of 2026?

When will AGI be confirmed?

Will U.S. federal debt held by the public exceed 110% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2028?

What will be the state of AGI by the end of 2030?

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated anywhere in the world in 2026?

Will Bitcoin ever reach $100,000 or higher again?

Will Keir Starmer cease to be UK Prime Minister at any point in 2026?

Will a frontier AI lab publicly state that AI agents write over 90% of its production code by the end of 2027?

Will a single AI-caused incident result in over $10 billion in damages or 100 or more deaths by the end of 2030?

Will Spain beat Argentina in the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Will the S&P 500 close more than 40% below its all-time high at any point through 2028?

Will the average annual temperature in Orange County, California exceed its 1991-2020 normal during 2026-2030?

Will the United States elect a female president in the 2028 presidential election?

Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. labor-force participation fall below 60% before the end of 2031?

Will any member of the Trump family go to prison by the end of 2029?

Will U.S. U-3 unemployment reach 7.0% or higher in any month through 2028?