Will the United States government confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by the end of 2030?

This market asks whether the U.S. government will issue a definitive public statement confirming extraterrestrial life or technology by December 31, 2030. The resolution criteria require an explicit admission that the origin of a phenomenon or object is extraterrestrial — statements about unidentified objects or phenomena without explicit extraterrestrial attribution are insufficient. As of late May 2026, the Pentagon has released two tranches of declassified UAP files (161 files in early May, 222 documents with 51 videos in late May), but AARO and official spokespeople have explicitly stated there is "no verifiable evidence" of extraterrestrial beings or technology. The Trump administration ordered the declassification, but the released materials are described as "unidentified" rather than confirmed as alien in origin. No senior government official has made the required definitive confirmation, and all recent official statements continue to deny extraterrestrial evidence. The quote of 4 reflects the extremely low probability given the consistent official position and the high evidentiary bar required for resolution.