This market asks whether the U.S. will enact federal legislation to make daylight saving time permanent by December 31, 2026. The House passed the Sunshine Protection Act (H.R. 139) on July 14, 2026 in a 308-117 vote, sending it to the Senate. President Trump has expressed support and said he would sign the bill. However, the bill faces significant obstacles in the Senate: no vote has been scheduled, Majority Leader John Thune said the 60-vote threshold is uncertain, and Sen. Tom Cotton has vowed to block the bill and can prevent passage by unanimous consent. The bill was referred to the Senate Commerce Committee on July 15, 2026. Given that the Senate has not scheduled a vote and key Republican leaders oppose the measure, the path to enactment by end of 2026 appears uncertain. The external market (Manifold) shows 19% for permanent DST becoming law by August 2028, suggesting the crowd views final legislation as unlikely. The quote should be anchored to this external sentiment at 19.
Airlines warned that implementing permanent DST would be operationally complex, requiring schedule adjustments and potential impacts on flights.
The bill was received in the Senate and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Senate prospects remain uncertain with opposition from some Republicans including Sen. Tom Cotton.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has opposed the bill, blocking unanimous consent in 2025. Multiple Senate Republicans also voted against similar legislation in committee, including Ted Budd, Deb Fischer, Jerry Moran, Tim Sheehy, Dan Sullivan, Roger Wicker, and Todd Young.
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