Part of the Which AI regulations will be implemented by the US federal government by 2028? topic →
This market asks whether any meaningful federal AI regulation will be enacted by January 1, 2029. The Senate passed the AI Accountability Act (68-29) in June 2026, sending it to the House where its path is uncertain—referred to Energy and Commerce and Judiciary committees, with Freedom Caucus demanding defense/intelligence exemptions. The bipartisan Great American AI Act discussion draft proposes 3-year state preemption but faces House Republican leadership opposition and has not been formally introduced. Meanwhile, Illinois (SB 315, signed July 7) and Connecticut (took effect July 1) have enacted state-level AI regulations, creating pressure for federal action. The 2028 election adds significant uncertainty. The current quote of 20 aligns with external market sentiment around 16% for AI safety legislation before 2027, reflecting modest probability of federal action in the near term.
Gov. JB Pritzker signs S.B. 315 requiring third-party safety audits for AI companies, marking first-in-nation state-level AI accountability legislation
State-level AI accountability legislation advances, potentially driving federal preemption debate
Landmark legislation requires federal contractors to document high-risk AI systems, mandates 72-hour incident reporting, and creates civil cause of action for discriminatory automated decisions. Bill now heads to House.
Landmark federal AI oversight bill requires federal contractors to document high-risk AI systems, mandates 72-hour incident reporting, and creates civil cause of action for discriminatory algorithmic decisions in housing, credit, and employment.
Dario Amodei publishes policy essay demanding FAA-style release gates for frontier models, pledges $350M for research
Will a federal tax on AI tokens at a provider level be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act be enacted into law by 2029?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
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Will the US government take an equity stake in OpenAI by the end of 2026?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
