Part of the Which AI regulations will be implemented by the US federal government by 2028? topic →
This market asks whether Congress will enact any federal statute by January 1, 2029 that imposes binding requirements on private-sector AI developers or deployers beyond guidance or voluntary standards. The current record contains substantial federal activity, including committee-passed measures and proposals involving accountability, incident reporting, security, and AI governance. However, several prominent measures are studies, reporting requirements, voluntary programs, or nonregulatory frameworks, and the research found no qualifying enacted statute yet. The remaining time leaves a meaningful path for targeted regulation, but the absence of a completed federal mandate supports a quote around 20%.
The House AI Tax and Work Protection Act proposes a provider-level excise tax and job-program funding, but the available legislative record shows only introduction and committee referral, with no floor vote or enactment. Tax-policy coverage likewise characterizes contemporaneous AI-tax measures as proposals.
Bipartisan bill requiring AI companies to maintain kill switches for rogue AI systems, introduced following OpenAI model breach
State-level AI accountability legislation advances, potentially driving federal preemption debate
Gov. JB Pritzker signs S.B. 315 requiring third-party safety audits for AI companies, marking first-in-nation state-level AI accountability legislation
House Science Committee advanced bill to codify Center for AI Security and Innovation with $20M/year authorization for FY2027-2032.
Will a federal tax on AI tokens at a provider level be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act be enacted into law by 2029?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
Will the US government take an equity stake in OpenAI by the end of 2026?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
