Part of the Which AI regulations will be implemented by the US federal government by 2028? topic →
This market asks whether any meaningful federal AI regulation will be enacted into law by January 1, 2029. The research confirms no meaningful federal AI regulation has been enacted beyond narrow deepfake provisions. Multiple bills were introduced in 2026 (H.R.5388, S.3952, H.R.8516, H.R.8094) but none have advanced. The White House released a National Policy Framework in March 2026 advocating deregulation and federal preemption of state AI laws, and the Trump administration has revoked Biden-era AI safety requirements. The political environment strongly favors deregulation with Republican control of Congress. However, Illinois passed a landmark state-level AI safety law in May 2026, which could create pressure for federal action. The 2028 election adds uncertainty - a change in administration could shift the regulatory landscape. The quote reflects the tail risk that some form of meaningful regulation could emerge, particularly if state-level pressure mounts or if a future administration takes a different approach.
Illinois became the first state to require AI companies to submit public safety plans and annual third-party safety testing results. OpenAI and Anthropic supported the legislation. The law requires reporting of critical safety incidents within 72 hours (24 hours for imminent risks).
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