Part of the What will be the state of AGI by the end of 2030? topic →
This market asks whether AGI will be developed by end of 2030 AND prove net positive to the world. Recent developments show AI leaders converging on shorter timelines — Demis Hassabis now says 2029 is plausible, Sam Altman is confident OpenAI knows how to build AGI, and expert forecasts on Metaculus have plummeted from 50 years to 5 years. The probability of AGI development by 2030 appears to be in the 40-45% range. If AGI arrives, the net positive outcome is weighted higher than net negative due to the industry's safety investments and the expectation that benefits would outweigh risks if proper governance is in place. The quote of 28 reflects roughly 45% development probability multiplied by roughly 62% net positive conditional on development.
DeepMind CEO says society has only a few years to prepare for human-level AI, with 2029 now looking plausible
State alleges OpenAI's ChatGPT poses safety risks to residents, marking increasing legal scrutiny of AI labs
DeepMind CEO says AGI is '3 to 4 years away' and we are in 'the foothills of the singularity'
Prediction market shows 25% chance by 2029, 50% by 2033 — down from 2040s in 2020
Google DeepMind's 145-page safety paper says human-level AI plausibly by 2030
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will recursive self-improvement be observed in AI by 2030?
Will any meaningful federal AI regulation be enacted into law by 2029?
Will a federal tax on AI tokens at a provider level be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act be enacted into law by 2029?
