Part of the What will be the state of AGI by the end of 2030? topic →
This market asks whether AGI will be developed by end of 2030 AND prove net positive to the world. The current quote of 36 reflects roughly 60% probability of AGI development by 2030, with a conditional ~60% split toward positive outcomes. Recent developments reinforce this: Hassabis tightened his timeline to 2029, OpenAI's o3 achieved 87.5% on ARC-AGI (approaching human-level), and major AI labs continue advancing capabilities. The positive case is supported by the Phase Three announcement, Amodei's policy engagement rather than opposition, and the Illinois safety law which both OpenAI and Anthropic supported. However, the quote appropriately remains below 50 given significant uncertainty around both technical achievement and the definitional threshold (matching human cognitive abilities across the full range of tasks). The external Polymarket at 10.5% refers to announcement timing, not the achievement+consensus threshold required here.
DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis stated humanity has a 'precious window' to ensure AGI is developed safely, calling AI a 'species-level transition' with little margin for error over the next decade.
DeepMind CEO says AGI could arrive 'around 2030, plus or minus a year,' describing AI as a 'species-level transition' with humanity having 'little margin for error'
Google DeepMind published a report mapping four paths from AGI to artificial superintelligence (ASI), arguing superintelligence is more likely to arrive as a series of transformative advances rather than a single dramatic 'step change.'
Company walks back policy that would have covertly degraded Claude's performance for researchers building competing AI models
Amodei's 'Policy on the AI Exponential' proposes FAA-style testing for frontier AI models, argues transparency alone is insufficient. Anthropic pledges $350M to manage AI labor-market impact.
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. real GDP growth exceed 4% in 2031?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. labor-force participation fall below 60% before the end of 2031?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2033?
