What will be the state of AGI by the end of 2030?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
- Shared across 3 marketsForecasting Research Institute reports that forecasters have often underestimated near-term AI progress1mo ago
A review found expert and superforecaster predictions lagged observed results on several near-term benchmarks and company revenue, while emphasizing that the evidence remains insufficient to judge broad societal-impact forecasts.
- Shared across 3 marketsFrontier AI lab leaders publicly back pacing development and independent safety evaluation1mo ago
After employee and researcher warnings about rapidly advancing capabilities and containment concerns, leaders including Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and OpenAI’s Sam Altman publicly supported pacing frontier development; reporting also described coordination and competition obstacles.
- Shared across 3 marketsOpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra and frames it as an AGI-era milestone2mo ago
OpenAI launched Astra on September 3, presenting advances in computer use, software, cybersecurity and science; President Greg Brockman said he personally thought “we’re there.” This is a high-profile company claim, not a consensus finding under the question’s full-range, novel-situation definition.
- Shared across 2 marketsAgentic governance research separates autonomy from generality2mo ago
A Nature perspective identifies distinct governance questions for autonomy, efficacy, goal complexity, and generality rather than assuming capability in one dimension determines overall impact.
- Shared across 2 markets15 Republican AGs demand OpenAI preserve records on Hugging Face breach3mo ago
Fifteen Republican state attorneys general issued a formal preservation demand to OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach, signaling active legal preparation for potential litigation