Mycelium
Log inSign up

What will be the state of AGI by the end of 2030?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 5y·$0 volume
·

Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?

55%

Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?

28%

Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?

17%
  1. Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
    Demis Hassabis tightens AGI timeline to 20292d ago

    DeepMind CEO says society has only a few years to prepare for human-level AI, with 2029 now looking plausible

  2. Shared across 2 markets
    Florida sues OpenAI over safety concerns3d ago

    State alleges OpenAI's ChatGPT poses safety risks to residents, marking increasing legal scrutiny of AI labs

  3. Shared across 2 markets
    Demis Hassabis tightens AGI timeline to 2029-20309d ago

    DeepMind CEO acknowledges both promise and peril of near-term AGI development

  4. Shared across 2 markets
    Metaculus AGI forecast shortens to 2029/20334mo ago

    Prediction market shows 25% chance by 2029, 50% by 2033 — down from 2040s in 2020

  5. Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
    AI Futures Model predicts AGI around 20345mo ago

    Academic model with median parameters suggests 2034, later than industry predictions