Part of the What will be the state of AGI by the end of 2030? topic →
This market asks whether AGI will NOT yet be developed by the end of 2030. While timelines have shortened significantly — with Hassabis now saying 2029 is plausible and expert forecasts converging around 2029-2033 — there remains substantial uncertainty. The definition of AGI as matching or exceeding human cognitive abilities across the full range of tasks is extremely demanding, and achieving consensus that this threshold has been met may take longer. The quote of 55 reflects the remaining significant probability that AGI remains unrealized by end of 2030, either because technical milestones are not met or because the expert consensus on AGI achievement is not reached.
Prediction market shows 25% chance by 2029, 50% by 2033 — still implies meaningful probability of later arrival
Academic model with median parameters suggests 2034, later than industry predictions
Published AI researchers significantly more skeptical than industry leaders
Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
Will recursive self-improvement be observed in AI by 2030?
Will any meaningful federal AI regulation be enacted into law by 2029?
Will a federal tax on AI tokens at a provider level be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act be enacted into law by 2029?
