This compound market requires BOTH AGI confirmation by end of 2030 AND US real GDP growth exceeding 4% in 2031. For the AGI component, expert forecasts give roughly 25-28% probability for AGI by 2030 (Metaculus, Samotsvety), with frontier lab leaders predicting late 2020s. However, the GDP component is the binding constraint: all major projections show US real GDP growth around 1.6-1.8% in 2031 — CBO projects 1.6% average 2026-2031, Statista forecasts 1.76%, and Deloitte projects ~1.7% as the economy reaches potential growth rate. No external market or forecast projects anything close to 4% growth. The probability of both conditions holding simultaneously is effectively the product of independent probabilities, placing the quote near 1.
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. labor-force participation fall below 60% before the end of 2031?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2033?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2027?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2028?
If AGI is confirmed by the end of 2030, will U.S. unemployment exceed 8% within 18 months of confirmation?
