Part of the When will AGI be confirmed? topic →
This market asks whether AGI will be confirmed by end of 2027, defined as a frontier lab's public claim meeting the performance threshold, corroborated within 90 days by at least two of: Stanford HAI AI Index or equivalent, peer-reviewed Nature/Science assessment, or agreement from a second frontier lab's leadership. Expert forecasts have shortened significantly - Metaculus forecasters assign ~25% probability by 2027, and a February 2026 survey of AI safety leaders found 22% assign ≥50% probability by 2030. DeepMind's Demis Hassabis stated in June 2026 that 2029 now looks plausible for AGI arrival. The quote reflects the high verification bar in the rules and current expert consensus.
DeepMind CEO says society has only a few years to prepare for AGI arrival, marking a shift from his previous 'within this decade' framing to a more specific timeline.
February 2026 survey of 59 AI safety leaders found median 25% AGI by 2030, 50% by 2033, with 22% assigning ≥50% probability by 2030.
Prediction market forecasters have dramatically shortened AGI timelines since 2020, from 50 years to 5 years median. Current: 25% probability by 2027, 50% by 2031.
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2028?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2033?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. labor-force participation fall below 60% before the end of 2031?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. real GDP growth exceed 4% in 2031?
If AGI is confirmed by the end of 2030, will U.S. unemployment exceed 8% within 18 months of confirmation?
