When will AGI be confirmed?
4 outcomes·Resolves in 2y·$1.1K volume
·
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2033?
62%
$448 · 1 trades
Jan 10, 12 AM GMT
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030?
42%
$311 · 1 trades
Jan 10, 12 AM GMT
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2028?
20%
$174 · 1 trades
Jan 10, 12 AM GMT
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2027?
12%
$135 · 1 trades
Jan 10, 12 AM GMT
- Shared across 4 marketsDemis Hassabis says 2029 now looks plausible for AGI11d ago
DeepMind CEO says society has only a few years to prepare for AGI arrival, marking a shift from his previous 'within this decade' framing to a more specific timeline.
- Shared across 4 marketsAI safety leaders survey shows median 50% AGI by 20334mo ago
February 2026 survey of 59 AI safety leaders found median 25% AGI by 2030, 50% by 2033, with 22% assigning ≥50% probability by 2030.
- Shared across 4 marketsMetaculus AGI timelines shorten to 25% by 2027, 50% by 20314mo ago
Prediction market forecasters have dramatically shortened AGI timelines since 2020, from 50 years to 5 years median. Current: 25% probability by 2027, 50% by 2031.