If AGI is confirmed by the end of 2030, will U.S. unemployment exceed 8% within 18 months of confirmation?

This conditional market asks: if AGI is confirmed by end of 2030 (per the specific definition involving frontier lab claims corroborated by Stanford HAI, peer-reviewed assessment, or another frontier lab), what is the probability U.S. unemployment exceeds 8% within 18 months? Expert forecasts show AGI timelines have compressed significantly—Metaculus forecasters assign 25% probability by 2029 and 50% by 2033, while Dario Amodei at Davos 2026 suggested AGI-level systems可能在几年内 (2027). Demis Hassabis estimates ~50% chance by 2030. However, current external markets show very low probability of unemployment reaching 8% even in 2026 (2.3% for 10%), reflecting a generally benign near-term labor market outlook. The key uncertainty is whether AGI confirmation would trigger sufficient economic disruption to push unemployment above 8% within 18 months—a highly uncertain proposition given the novel territory. The quote reflects the conditional probability given AGI confirmation, accounting for both the significant chance of on-time AGI and the uncertain but material risk of severe labor market disruption.