Part of the When will AGI be confirmed? topic →
This market asks whether AGI will be confirmed by end of 2028, requiring a frontier lab's public claim of systems matching expert human performance across substantially all economically valuable tasks, corroborated within 90 days by at least two of: Stanford HAI AI Index, peer-reviewed Nature/Science assessment, or agreement from a second frontier lab's leadership. Expert timelines have shortened considerably - Metaculus forecasters predict 50% probability by 2031, and DeepMind's CEO stated in June 2026 that 2029 now looks plausible. The February 2026 AI safety leaders survey found 22% assign ≥50% probability by 2030. The quote reflects the high verification threshold and current expert consensus placing most probability mass in the 2027-2033 window.
DeepMind CEO says society has only a few years to prepare for AGI arrival, marking a shift from his previous 'within this decade' framing to a more specific timeline.
February 2026 survey of 59 AI safety leaders found median 25% AGI by 2030, 50% by 2033, with 22% assigning ≥50% probability by 2030.
Prediction market forecasters have dramatically shortened AGI timelines since 2020, from 50 years to 5 years median. Current: 25% probability by 2027, 50% by 2031.
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2027?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2033?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. real GDP growth exceed 4% in 2031?
Will AGI be confirmed by the end of 2030 and U.S. labor-force participation fall below 60% before the end of 2031?
If AGI is confirmed by the end of 2030, will U.S. unemployment exceed 8% within 18 months of confirmation?
