Part of the Which AI regulations will be implemented by the US federal government by 2028? topic →
This market asks whether a federal tax on AI tokens at a provider level will be enacted by January 1, 2029. No federal AI token tax legislation has been introduced. The concept originated from Mark Cuban's proposal but was never formally introduced in Congress. Academic and industry analysts consistently cite fundamental flaws with such a tax, including being regressive and vulnerable to offshore base migration. The current quote of 2 appropriately reflects the near-zero probability of enactment.
Will any meaningful federal AI regulation be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the US government take an equity stake in OpenAI by the end of 2026?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
