Part of the Which AI regulations will be implemented by the US federal government by 2028? topic →
This market asks whether a federal tax on AI tokens at the provider level will be enacted into law by January 1, 2029. The research confirms no such legislation exists. Mark Cuban proposed a federal token tax of less than $0.50 per million tokens at the provider level, but this was never introduced as formal legislation. Academic analysis from Brookings and other policy analysts has criticized the proposal as fundamentally flawed - the tax would be regressive, hitting cheap inference 1000x harder than expensive inference, and would be structurally vulnerable to base migration offshore. Additionally, the tax base is endogenous to the taxed entity (tokenizer efficiency), making it unstable. Given these fundamental design flaws and the complete absence of any legislative proposal, the probability remains extremely low. The current quote of 3 appropriately reflects that this is a novel concept with no political momentum and significant practical obstacles.
Will any meaningful federal AI regulation be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act be enacted into law by 2029?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
Will the United States enact federal legislation to make daylight saving time permanent by the end of 2026?
