Part of the Which AI regulations will be implemented by the US federal government by 2028? topic →
This market asks whether the federal government will enact a provider-level tax on AI tokens by January 1, 2029. H.R.10044, the AI Tax and Work Protection Act, was introduced on August 6, 2026 and referred to the House Education and Workforce and Ways and Means Committees. It would impose an excise tax on companies developing or selling AI foundation models, but the researched record shows no floor vote or enactment. Although AI-tax proposals remain part of congressional debate, the bill’s early procedural status and the need for agreement in both chambers keep the probability very low.
Rep. Greg Casar introduces AI Tax and Work Protection Act (H.R.10044) imposing excise tax on AI tokens or revenue, with rates that escalate when unemployment exceeds 5%. Creates Work Protection Administration within Labor Department.
Mark Cuban proposed a federal per-token tax on AI providers of less than fifty cents per million tokens, levied at the provider level. The proposal remains conceptual with significant implementation challenges.
Will any meaningful federal AI regulation be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act be enacted into law by 2029?
Will the US government take an equity stake in OpenAI by the end of 2026?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
