Part of the Which AI regulations will be implemented by the US federal government by 2028? topic →
This market asks whether the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act will be enacted into law by January 1, 2029. Senator Sanders announced this proposal on June 1, 2026, outlining a one-time 50% equity tax on major AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) to fund a public sovereign wealth fund. However, the legislation has NOT yet been formally introduced in Congress, and Sanders himself acknowledged the proposal faces 'enormous political, legal, and practical hurdles.' No co-sponsors have been publicly announced, and no formal legislative text exists. The proposal faces significant obstacles: it requires a new statutory authority to tax equity (not profits), would face intense legal challenges regarding constitutionality, and operates in a political environment that strongly favors deregulation. The White House has advocated for federal preemption of state AI laws, and the Trump administration has taken a deregulatory stance. Given these substantial hurdles and the unfavorable political environment, the probability remains very low. The slight reduction from 5 to 4 reflects the continued absence of any formal legislative introduction nearly a week after the announcement.
Sen. Bernie Sanders announces plan to introduce legislation creating a sovereign wealth fund through 50% equity tax on AI companies
Will any meaningful federal AI regulation be enacted into law by 2029?
Will a federal tax on AI tokens at a provider level be enacted into law by 2029?
Will AGI not yet be developed by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net positive to the world by the end of 2030?
Will AGI be developed and be net negative to the world by the end of 2030?
Will the United States enact federal legislation to make daylight saving time permanent by the end of 2026?
