This market asks whether the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election will be female, as officially certified by Congress by January 20, 2029. The current quote of 19 cents (19% probability) reflects external sentiment that a woman will be elected president in 2028. Key female candidates include Kamala Harris (leading Democratic primary polls at ~30% but only ~5% on prediction markets to actually win the election), AOC (~8% on Polymarket), Gretchen Whitmer (effectively out at ~0.5%), and Nikki Haley (ruled out at ~0.7%). No woman has ever been elected U.S. president, and the combined probability across all female candidates in external markets hovers around 17-19%, aligning closely with the current quote. The Republican field remains dominated by male candidates, with JD Vance leading. The quote remains anchored to external sentiment where the crowd has already priced in all public polling data.
Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic primary with 29%, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has surged to second place with 17%, overtaking Gavin Newsom at 11%. On the Republican side, JD Vance leads with 37% over Marco Rubio at 30%.
Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election be held on schedule with electoral votes counted by January 6, 2029?
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for president in 2028?
Will the losing major-party candidate in the 2028 U.S. presidential election concede within 14 days of major media projections?
