This market asks whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will officially announce her 2028 presidential candidacy or file FEC paperwork. As of late May 2026, no official announcement or FEC presidential filing exists — she remains only filed as a House candidate (NY-14). She has undertaken a national tour to key primary states (Philadelphia, Montgomery, Atlanta, Missoula) and attended the Power Rising Summit, but continues to decline confirmations, stating her ambition is to change the country rather than a specific office. External prediction markets price roughly 17% probability of an announcement before 2027, closely aligning with the current quote. The key uncertainty is whether AOC will ultimately decide to run — she remains in exploratory mode with visible positioning but no formal declaration.
Emerson College poll shows 11% support (up 7 points from August); AtlasIntel poll shows her leading with 26% in hypothetical field
In a May 8, 2026 appearance with Democratic strategist David Axelrod, Ocasio-Cortez said her ambition is 'way bigger' than becoming president and that she wants to 'change this country.' She did not announce a candidacy.
AOC visits Pennsylvania, Georgia as part of de facto national campaign tour; meets with Democratic powerbrokers; quoted in Philadelphia comparing MAGA to 'dying breath of the confederacy'
FEC candidate profile H8NY15148 shows Ocasio-Cortez only registered as House candidate for NY-14. She has raised $27.7 million for her House campaign (2025-2026) but has not filed presidential paperwork.
September 2025 report stated Ocasio-Cortez and her team were actively positioning her to run for president or Senate in 2028, with her having campaigned nationally and invested heavily in digital infrastructure.
