This market asks whether, by 2046, Christian nationalism is broadly judged to have gained substantially more political influence than it had in 2026—not merely whether it remains an active movement. The 2026 baseline is consequential but not dominant: PRRI finds roughly one-third of Americans are adherents or sympathizers, with support concentrated among Republicans and little national change since 2022. Pew likewise finds a modest increase in support for making Christianity the official religion, while most Americans still favor either church-state separation or non-establishment. A 20-year horizon leaves meaningful room for durable policy adoption or a shift in governance norms, so the movement’s organized partisan base and existing institutional pathway lift the probability above even odds only modestly, while its minority national support and strong pluralist constraints keep the quote below a clear majority.
PRRI and Pew independently document strong Republican concentration and policy relevance, while finding that national majorities still reject formal Christian establishment or favor church-state separation.
