This market asks whether Christian nationalism will become substantially more embedded in U.S. law, public opinion, or governing norms by September 2046, with that expansion recognized by credible institutions or expert consensus. The 2026 baseline shows a sizable but nationally minority constituency: PRRI reports support broadly stable since 2022, while Pew finds no recent growth in support for making biblical principles paramount in law and widespread opposition to formal religious establishment. The Religious Liberty Commission’s recommendations indicate an institutional pathway for influence, but its report is advisory rather than durable federal law; secularization and public resistance remain important counterforces. The 20-year horizon leaves ample room for political shifts, so the possibility remains material, but external-market searches surfaced no usable projection for this specific outcome.
After the Fifth Circuit upheld Texas S.B. 10, families asked the Supreme Court to review the law requiring state-selected Ten Commandments displays in public-school classrooms. The state mandate is law, but Supreme Court review remained pending in the reports.
The commission recommended changes including new church–state guidance, a religious-liberty enforcement task force and repeal of the Johnson Amendment; these were recommendations, not enacted law.
The State Board of Education approved required reading materials that include Bible passages for more than five million students, with rollout beginning in 2030. This is a state-board curriculum decision, not federal law; implementation is years away and remains contested.
PRRI and Pew independently document strong Republican concentration and policy relevance, while finding that national majorities still reject formal Christian establishment or favor church-state separation.
The administration created an advisory commission to recommend federal action on religious liberty and promote a stronger public role for religious voices.
