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Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0, 7.0, or 8.0+ by 2030?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 4y·$6.0K volume
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Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by 2030?

94%

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater by 2030?

85%

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater by 2030?

7%
  1. Shared across 3 markets
    Magnitude 5.6 Earthquake Strikes Northern California25d ago

    A moderate earthquake rattled Northern California in June 2026, part of ongoing seismic activity consistent with UCERF3 forecasts

  2. Shared across 3 markets
    Southern California earthquake stress highest in 1,000 years1mo ago

    Study finds tectonic stress on Southern California faults at highest levels in 1,000 years, with potential for joint San Andreas-San Jacinto rupture

  3. Shared across 3 markets
    Study finds Southern California earthquake stress highest in 1,000 years1mo ago

    Study by University of Bern researchers published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth finds stress at Cajon Pass is highest in 1,000 years

  4. Shared across 3 markets
    Magnitude 5.7 and 5.1 earthquakes shake California1mo ago

    Magnitude 5.7 and 5.1 earthquakes shake California in June 2026

  5. Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater by 2030?
    Seismologists confirm Brawley swarm is slowing and typical for the region2mo ago

    Lucy Jones and other experts stated the swarm behavior is normal for the Brawley Seismic Zone and historically does not trigger larger San Andreas events