Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0, 7.0, or 8.0+ by 2030?
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by 2030?
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater by 2030?
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater by 2030?
- Shared across 3 marketsUpdated USGS-linked calculation raises Bay Area 30-year M≥6.7 probability to 74%2mo ago
A recent report put the Bay Area probability at 74%, compared with 72% in the 2014 UCERF3 estimate. This is a regional forecast update, not a statewide estimate or a newly observed earthquake.
- Shared across 3 marketsStudy reports prospective evaluation of California earthquake forecasting models3mo ago
A Nature Communications study evaluated 27 models against prospective 2007–2018 forecasts and found select models consistent with observed seismicity; it does not revise long-term statewide M8+ occurrence probabilities.
- Shared across 3 marketsExpert debate on whether 'The Big One' is nearly here3mo ago
Latest California earthquakes leave experts debating seismic risk. The July 2026 earthquake activity prompted discussion about whether a major earthquake is imminent.
- Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater by 2030?
USGS recorded a magnitude 5.6 earthquake near Redwood Valley on June 24, 2026. It was below the market's 8.0 threshold and does not resolve this market.
- Shared across 3 marketsMagnitude 5.6 Earthquake Strikes Northern California4mo ago
A moderate earthquake rattled Northern California in June 2026, part of ongoing seismic activity consistent with UCERF3 forecasts