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Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0, 7.0, or 8.0+ by 2030?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 4y·$16K volume
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Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by 2030?

90%

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater by 2030?

45%

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater by 2030?

3%
  1. Shared across 3 markets
    Expert debate on whether 'The Big One' is nearly here2mo ago

    Latest California earthquakes leave experts debating seismic risk. The July 2026 earthquake activity prompted discussion about whether a major earthquake is imminent.

  2. Shared across 3 markets
    Magnitude 5.6 Earthquake Strikes Northern California2mo ago

    A moderate earthquake rattled Northern California in June 2026, part of ongoing seismic activity consistent with UCERF3 forecasts

  3. Shared across 3 markets
    Southern California earthquake stress highest in 1,000 years3mo ago

    Study finds tectonic stress on Southern California faults at highest levels in 1,000 years, with potential for joint San Andreas-San Jacinto rupture

  4. Shared across 3 markets
    Study finds Southern California earthquake stress highest in 1,000 years3mo ago

    Study by University of Bern researchers published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth finds stress at Cajon Pass is highest in 1,000 years

  5. Shared across 3 markets
    Magnitude 5.7 and 5.1 earthquakes shake California3mo ago

    Magnitude 5.7 and 5.1 earthquakes shake California in June 2026