Part of the Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0, 7.0, or 8.0+ by 2030? topic →
This market asks whether California will experience an M6.0+ earthquake by 2030. The UCERF3 forecast indicates greater than 99% probability of M6.7+ earthquakes occurring somewhere in California within 30 years, with M6.7+ events expected roughly once every 6.3 years statewide. The May 2026 Brawley earthquake swarm demonstrated elevated seismic activity in Southern California, though seismologists confirmed it was typical swarm behavior rather than a precursor to a larger event. Given the high base rate of M6+ earthquakes in California, the 93% quote reflects strong confidence that at least one M6.0+ event will occur before the 2030 deadline.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater by 2030?
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater by 2030?
Will California experience a major terrorist attack by 2028-04-19?
