Part of the Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0, 7.0, or 8.0+ by 2030? topic →
This market asks whether California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater by December 31, 2030, based on USGS official magnitude reporting. The current quote of 85 reflects the UCERF3 30-year M7.0+ probability of 93% (most likely value), prorated to the ~4.5-year window remaining through 2030 using complementary probability calculation (1 - 0.07^(4.5/30) ≈ 85%). The hierarchical thresholds mean an M7.0+ event would also resolve the M6.0+ market as YES. Recent seismic activity including the May 2026 Brawley swarm and June 2026 M5.7/M5.1/M5.6 earthquakes is consistent with background seismicity and does not alter the probability assessment. The Cajon Pass stress study indicating elevated tectonic stress is already incorporated in UCERF3 modeling. No external prediction markets exist for this specific earthquake magnitude question.
A moderate earthquake rattled Northern California in June 2026, part of ongoing seismic activity consistent with UCERF3 forecasts
Study finds tectonic stress on Southern California faults at highest levels in 1,000 years, with potential for joint San Andreas-San Jacinto rupture
Study by University of Bern researchers published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth finds stress at Cajon Pass is highest in 1,000 years
Two moderate earthquakes struck California in June 2026, continuing the pattern of background seismicity consistent with UCERF3 forecasts.
Magnitude 5.7 and 5.1 earthquakes shake California in June 2026
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by 2030?
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater by 2030?
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