Will California experience a major terrorist attack by 2028-04-19?

This market asks whether California will experience a major terrorist attack by April 19, 2028 — defined as an attack causing at least 5 fatalities OR at least $100 million in verified property damage, confirmed by federal agencies or major news consensus. The current quote of 8 reflects the assessment that while multiple terror plots have been disrupted in California over the past year (including the December 2025 New Year's Eve plot, ISIS drone plot, Iraqi national plot targeting LA synagogues, and the Palm Springs fertility clinic attack), none have resulted in an attack meeting the resolution threshold. The San Diego mosque shooting killed 3 people — below the 5-fatality threshold. FBI has characterized recent Iran drone threat warnings as not credible. FIFA World Cup 2026 security concerns persist but no attack has occurred. The primary barrier to a YES resolution remains the high threshold (5 fatalities or $100M damage), and no external California-specific terrorism markets exist for anchoring purposes.