Will California experience a major terrorist attack by 2028-04-19?

This market asks whether California will experience a major terrorist attack by April 19, 2028, defined as an attack causing at least 5 fatalities or $100 million in verified property damage, confirmed by federal agencies or major news outlets. The research digest confirms that all known terror-related incidents in California since December 2025 have fallen below the resolution threshold: the San Diego mosque shooting in May 2026 killed 3 people (below the 5-fatality threshold), and both the December 2025 New Year's Eve bombing plot and the May 2026 Iraqi national plot targeting a Los Angeles Jewish institution were disrupted by law enforcement before execution. The FBI's March 2026 warning about potential Iran-backed drone attacks was subsequently characterized by officials as "unverified" with no credible imminent threat. FIFA World Cup 2026 matches in California have generated heightened security concerns, but no specific credible threats have emerged. The high resolution threshold (5 fatalities or $100M damage) remains the primary barrier to a YES resolution, as all disrupted plots and actual attacks to date have not met this bar. External sentiment provides no countervailing signal, as no closely matching prediction market on this specific question was found.