Part of the Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0, 7.0, or 8.0+ by 2030? topic →
This market asks whether California will experience an M8.0+ earthquake by 2030. The USGS UCERF3 model estimates a 7% probability of M8+ occurring anywhere in California within 30 years. Prorating to the ~4.6 year window to December 2030 yields approximately 1% base probability, but the quote reflects additional uncertainty about whether the next large earthquake will occur on the San Andreas or another capable fault. Seismologists note M8+ events are rare but possible, with the 1906 San Francisco earthquake being the most recent M8-class event in the state. No external prediction markets exist for this specific question.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater by 2030?
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by 2030?
Will California experience a major terrorist attack by 2028-04-19?
