This market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be UK Prime Minister at any point in 2026. The research digest contains definitive evidence that Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister on June 22, 2026, less than two years after his 2024 election victory. The resignation was confirmed by multiple credible sources including BBC, Al Jazeera, and The Guardian. Starmer stated he is not best placed to lead Labour into the next general election and will remain as caretaker PM until his successor is chosen. Andy Burnham is the clear frontrunner to replace him. The external prediction markets show near-certainty (92-93%) that Starmer will leave office by mid-to-late July 2026. The market resolves YES as Starmer has already ceased to hold the office of Prime Minister in 2026 - his resignation took effect when announced on June 22, 2026, well within the calendar year.
Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister and Labour Party leader, stating he is not best placed to lead Labour into the next general election. He will remain as caretaker PM until his successor is chosen.
Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election with 55% of the vote, defeating Reform UK by over 9,000 votes and securing a majority of 6,500.
Healey accused Starmer and Reeves of putting UK's security at risk; Dan Jarvis appointed as successor
Healey quit in row with Starmer over military spending, delivering stinging rebuke of PM's defence policies.
John Healey resigns as Defence Secretary, accusing Starmer of putting UK's security at risk through inadequate defence spending.
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