Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to hold his current office in 2026?

Resolves Jan 8, 2027 (in 7mo)·$0 volume·0 trades

Yes

10%

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This market asks whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to hold his office as President of Turkey during 2026. Turkey's opposition crisis has deepened as the court reinstated former CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu, overriding the party congress result, and police evicted Özel supporters from party headquarters. Some opposition figures interpret these actions as signs Erdoğan is planning a snap election. However, Erdoğan cannot run for a third term without constitutional change, making his departure in 2026 highly unlikely unless he voluntarily calls elections. External sentiment prices this at extremely low probability (0.1% as 'next leader out before 2027'), consistent with the current quote.