Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to hold his current office in 2026?

Resolves Jan 8, 2027 (in 6mo)·$742 volume·7 trades

Yes

6%

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Part of the Will these world leaders cease to hold their current office in 2026? topic →

This market asks whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will leave office before December 31, 2026. Erdoğan remains firmly in control despite reports of health concerns and internal power struggles among family and loyalists. External prediction markets price this outcome at approximately 6%, reflecting the low probability of an unexpected departure from a leader who has consolidated power over two decades. The quote of 6 aligns with the external market consensus.