Part of the Will these world leaders cease to hold their current office in 2026? topic →
This market asks whether Sánchez actually ceases to be Spain’s prime minister by December 31, not simply whether he loses the November 29 election. Polling is mixed, with some reports indicating a possible PP–Vox governing route and a reported CIS poll putting PSOE ahead. Even an opposition victory would not itself transfer the office: the new chamber meets in December, and government formation and appointment could extend beyond year-end. External projections put the departure chance at about 4.8%, consistent with the narrow window for a handover before the deadline.
An October 14 CIS poll put PSOE ahead of the PP, contrasting with other polling and projections that have pointed to a PP–Vox majority. These are polling estimates, not an election result or evidence that Sánchez has left office.
A poll average updated to Oct. 9 projects 204 seats for PP and Vox combined, above the 176-seat majority threshold. Other reporting also described a PP-led coalition with Vox as the most likely election outcome. Polls are uncertain, and Sánchez could remain caretaker until a successor is invested; defeat alone is not an immediate transfer of office.
The election decree dissolves parliament and sets the November 29 vote, with the new Cortes scheduled to convene December 23. A vote could change the governing majority, but transfer of the premiership still depends on parliamentary investiture.
After Congress rejected housing decrees, Sánchez announced an early election and said an extraordinary Cabinet would move to dissolve the Cortes. The vote could lead to a change in prime minister, but Sánchez remains in office pending the election and subsequent government formation.
The statutory timetable fixes the snap election for November 29; the new Cortes must convene within 25 days, while outgoing ministers remain in a caretaker role until a successor government takes office.
