Will any nuclear weapon be detonated anywhere in the world in 2026?

This market asks whether any nuclear weapon will be detonated anywhere in the world during 2026. The definition is broad: any nuclear explosion from fission or fusion, whether intentional, accidental, or part of military/testing/terrorist operations. As of mid-July 2026, no nuclear detonations have occurred this year. External prediction markets price specific country nuclear tests at 1-9% by year-end, providing a floor. The current quote of 15 reflects elevated risk perception. Key risk drivers include: Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds (closest ever), North Korea's 'exponential' nuclear expansion announced June 2026, UN nuclear terrorism warning at historic high, Russia-Belarus joint nuclear exercises July 2026, and ongoing US-Iran conflict. Mitigating factors: US-Iran peace deal signed June 14, 2026, Russia Oreshnik strikes all used confirmed conventional/inert warheads, and no nuclear detonation in 2026 to date. The external markets show Russia test by year-end at 8.5%, US test at 6%, Iran test at 4.5% - these are specific to one country's test and don't capture accidents, terrorism, or use in conflict. The broader market definition justifies a premium above these country-specific tests. The quote of 15 remains appropriate given the elevated but not imminent threat level.