This market asks whether any nuclear weapon will be detonated anywhere in the world during 2026, covering intentional tests, accidents, or terrorist use. Despite extremely elevated nuclear tensions — including Russia's three Oreshnik missile strikes on Ukraine, major Russian nuclear drills with 64,000 troops, the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds, and New START treaty expiration — no actual nuclear detonation has occurred in 2026 to date. Crucially, all three Russian Oreshnik strikes used inert concrete warhead simulators, not live nuclear warheads. External prediction markets show 7.5-8.5% probability for Russia or the US conducting a nuclear test by year-end. Given this market's broader definition (any detonation anywhere, including accidents or terrorism) and significant tail risks from North Korea's expanding arsenal, Iran tensions, and historic-high nuclear terrorism warnings, a slight premium above external sentiment is warranted.
Russia fires RS-26 Oreshnik at Kyiv region with inert warheads; each strike demonstrates expanded reach while maintaining ambiguity
Russia held massive three-day nuclear force drills in May 2026, with Belarus joint exercises on nuclear weapons use
UN official states nuclear terror threat has never been so high; includes dirty bombs, attacks on nuclear plants, stolen weapons, or improvised nuclear devices
India successfully test-fired its first nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (Agni with MIRV technology) off the Odisha coast in May 2026, joining US, Russia, China, North Korea in the ICBM category.
North Korea's nuclear arsenal growing rapidly, may soon overwhelm US missile defenses; Kim Jong Un reaffirmed never rejoining NPT
