Part of the When will a nuclear weapon next be used in armed conflict? topic →
This market asks whether a nuclear weapon will be used in armed conflict by end of 2030. The quote of 9 reflects elevated but still low probability over the medium term. Key escalation pathways: China's rapid nuclear buildup (on track for 1,000 warheads by 2030) with hardening for Taiwan contingency represents the most significant new risk. Russia's lowered nuclear doctrine threshold and continued signaling create ongoing risk. The 2030 horizon allows time for China to complete nuclear modernization and potentially develop operational plans for Taiwan scenarios. The cumulative nature of these markets means any 2027 non-resolution carries forward.
IAEA board passes resolution demanding Iran cooperate and declare uranium stocks; inspectors unable to locate nuclear material after nearly one year of denied access
SIPRI Yearbook 2026 shows India deployed 12 warheads; arsenal grew to 190 warheads focused on China-targeting
Xi Jinping meets Kim Jong Un in rare summit, calls for strengthened 'strategic cooperation'; comes as North Korea declares denuclearization 'irreversibly terminated'
Satellite images show extensive network of launch pads near Hami silo field; on track for 1,000 warheads by 2030
China's Eastern Theater Command conducted military drills simulating nuclear attack response in the Taiwan Strait area, suggesting preparation for potential nuclear use in a Taiwan conflict.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2035?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?
If a nuclear weapon is used in armed conflict by the end of 2030, will a second detonation occur within 30 days of the first?
Will more than nine states possess nuclear weapons by the end of 2030?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated anywhere in the world in 2026?
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2028?
