This market asks whether more than nine states will possess nuclear weapons by the end of 2030, based on SIPRI Yearbook or Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Notebook listings. The current nine nuclear-armed states are the US, Russia, China, France, UK, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. External prediction markets show roughly 53% probability that a new nuclear-armed state will emerge before 2030, with Iran widely viewed as the most likely candidate given its technical capability and ongoing nuclear program. South Korea and Saudi Arabia are also mentioned as potential near-term proliferation risks, with US support for their enrichment programs increasing weaponization prospects. The key uncertainty is whether any country will actually cross the threshold from technical capability to deployed nuclear weapons by 2030.
The United States is supporting South Korea's efforts to develop domestic enrichment and reprocessing capabilities. Seoul has threatened to develop nuclear weapons due to North Korea's growing nuclear threat.
Trump administration announced joint declaration on civil nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia. US willing to allow Saudi enrichment without demanding Additional Protocol acceptance.
Iran possesses technical capability to create nuclear weapons; estimates range from 3 months to 18 months for weaponization. The country remains the most likely to exit NPT or develop weapons by 2030.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2030?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2035?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2028?
If a nuclear weapon is used in armed conflict by the end of 2030, will a second detonation occur within 30 days of the first?
Will the United States and Russia have a strategic nuclear arms-control treaty in force by the end of 2028?
