This market asks whether Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by end of 2028, resolving YES on confirmed nuclear test, IAEA-assembled weapon report, or US ODNI formal assessment. The research shows Iran maintains 440.9 kg of 60%-enriched uranium (enough for ~10 bombs) but the IAEA cannot verify the program's status since military strikes in June 2025. Peace talks are ongoing with Trump claiming a deal could be imminent, though key US demand is Iranian nuclear disarmament. External markets show "Iran nuclear test before 2027" at 7.5% and "Iran Nuke before 2027" at 8.9% — these proxies for the broader "possess nuclear weapon" outcome by 2028 anchor the quote at 12, slightly above the test-specific probability to account for the market's three resolution pathways including IAEA or ODNI assessments.
Following months of conflict beginning February 2026, US and Iran negotiate terms for ending the war; Trump insists Iran must give up its nuclear program as part of any deal.
The IAEA Board of Governors passes resolution demanding Iran provide urgent cooperation and access to nuclear sites, citing proliferation concerns.
The UN nuclear watchdog's June 2026 report shows Iran remains in non-compliance with NPT safeguards, with unaccounted for enriched uranium stockpiles and no access to nuclear sites since June 2025 military strikes.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2035?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2030?
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test explosion by the end of 2027?
Will more than nine states possess nuclear weapons by the end of 2030?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated anywhere in the world in 2026?
