Part of the When will a nuclear weapon next be used in armed conflict? topic →
This market covers the longest horizon through end of 2035. Over a decade, multiple escalation pathways could materialize: continued Russia-Ukraine attritional warfare with potential Russian regime pressure; China-Taiwan contingency with hardened nuclear forces; further North Korean nuclear maturation; Iranian nuclear program evolution. Global warhead numbers have risen to 9,745 deployable warheads across nine nuclear-armed states. All nuclear-armed states continue modernizing arsenals. The cumulative probability is the highest among the three markets but still reflects the high confirmation bar (IAEA/CTBTO/2 permanent UNSC members). Quote moves to 15.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2030?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?
If a nuclear weapon is used in armed conflict by the end of 2030, will a second detonation occur within 30 days of the first?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated anywhere in the world in 2026?
Will more than nine states possess nuclear weapons by the end of 2030?
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2028?
