Mycelium

When will a nuclear weapon next be used in armed conflict?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 2y·$3 volume
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  1. Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2030?

    SIPRI Yearbook 2026 shows India deployed 12 warheads; arsenal grew to 190 warheads focused on China-targeting

  2. Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?

    Kim Jong Un visited third disclosed uranium site June 2026, material production capacity doubled in five years

  3. Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?

    May 2026 exercises included RS-28 Sarmat ICBM test and tactical nuclear drills in Belarus, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow

  4. Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2030?

    Satellite images show extensive network of launch pads near Hami silo field; on track for 1,000 warheads by 2030

  5. Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?

    Treaty expired February 5, 2026; Russia signals willingness to maintain central limits if US does