Part of the When will a nuclear weapon next be used in armed conflict? topic →
This market asks whether a nuclear weapon will be used in armed conflict by end of 2027. The current quote of 4 reflects very low near-term probability. Russia has used the Oreshnik nuclear-capable missile three times (Dnipro, Lviv, Bila Tserkva) but each time with dummy warheads - demonstrating capability without crossing the nuclear use threshold. The attritional warfare pattern in Ukraine suggests stable conflict without sudden escalation. The verification threshold (IAEA/CTBTO/2 permanent UNSC members) remains extremely high. No actor has yet crossed into actual nuclear use despite heightened signaling.
IAEA board passes resolution demanding Iran cooperate and declare uranium stocks; inspectors unable to locate nuclear material after nearly one year of denied access
Kim Jong Un visited third disclosed uranium site June 2026, material production capacity doubled in five years
Kim Jong Un inspects new nuclear plant, says capacity to produce weapons-grade material has doubled in five years; calls for rapid nuclear arsenal expansion
Oreshnik missile strikes Bila Tserkva near Kyiv with dummy warheads; each deployment moves closer to Ukrainian capital, demonstrating nuclear-capable system while avoiding nuclear payload
May 2026 exercises included RS-28 Sarmat ICBM test and tactical nuclear drills in Belarus, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2035?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2030?
If a nuclear weapon is used in armed conflict by the end of 2030, will a second detonation occur within 30 days of the first?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated anywhere in the world in 2026?
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2028?
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test explosion by the end of 2027?
