This market asks whether a bilateral or multilateral treaty or executive agreement limiting deployed strategic nuclear weapons will be in force between the US and Russia by end of 2028, succeeding the expired New START. New START expired on February 5, 2026, and current negotiations are deadlocked. The Trump administration insists on including China in any new treaty—a demand Beijing has rejected—while also seeking to limit all Russian nuclear warheads rather than just deployed ones, a position Moscow finds unacceptable. Both sides conducted ICBM tests in late May 2026 amid the deadlock. External sentiment is extremely pessimistic: a comparable short-term market prices a US-Russia nuclear deal by June 2026 at only 2.9% YES. However, Russia has voluntarily committed to observing New START limits as long as the US does the same, and the 2.5-year horizon to end-2028 provides substantial time for diplomatic breakthroughs. The quote reflects the deep skepticism about reaching a formal treaty given current positions, balanced against the long timeframe and Russia's demonstrated willingness to maintain some constraints.
Both the US and Russia conducted ICBM tests in late May 2026 as bilateral nuclear arms control negotiations remained deadlocked.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated Russia will respect New START's caps as long as the US observes them too.
The last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty expired on February 5, 2026, ending limits on strategic nuclear forces for the first time since the 1970s.
Will the Russo-Ukrainian War end by the end of 2027?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2027?
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2028?
Will more than nine states possess nuclear weapons by the end of 2030?
Will a nuclear weapon be used in armed conflict by the end of 2035?
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test explosion by the end of 2027?
