This market asks whether the Russo-Ukrainian War will end by December 31, 2027 through a formal peace treaty, armistice, or comprehensive ceasefire that ends major combat operations. The research digest confirms the current state: multiple rounds of US-mediated peace talks have failed, a three-day ceasefire collapsed in May 2026, and Russia maintains maximalist territorial demands requiring Ukraine to cede the entire Donbas region. US Secretary of State Rubio acknowledged on May 22, 2026 that peace talks 'have not been fruitful' — the most blunt admission yet that the diplomatic process has stalled. Russia formally rejected the 20-point peace plan, continues battlefield advances, and targets civilian infrastructure. Ukraine has indicated 90% of a deal is ready but the remaining 10% (territory) is the critical sticking point. With no ceasefire in place, no agreed territorial settlement, and Russia showing no willingness to compromise, the conditions for a formal peace resolution appear absent as of mid-2026. The current quote of 18 reflects extremely low probability that a sustained peace agreement will be reached by end of 2027.
Zelensky said he wants to find a diplomatic path before winter, noting Russia's battlefield initiative has slowed since December 2025 while Ukraine intensifies long-range strikes inside Russia.
Foreign Minister Sybiha said trilateral talks with US and Russia have 'reached the limits of their effectiveness' and are 'on pause.' A leaders' meeting is now necessary. Russia continues to issue 'unacceptable ultimatums' including troop withdrawal from Donbas.
Ukrainian forces liberated the village of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukraine's Defense Minister announced a 'logistics lockdown' campaign targeting Russian supply lines. Ukrainian Hornet drones are striking Russian vehicles 160km+ behind front lines.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated Russia is 'on the back foot' as Ukrainian battlefield position improves, while Zelenskyy confirmed requests to US for air defence support and orders of up to 20 Swedish fighter jets
Zelensky sent letter to Trump and Congress warning of critical Patriot missile shortages. Ukraine relies almost exclusively on US for ballistic missile defense. The letter cited worsening Russian ballistic missile attacks and said current delivery pace is 'no longer keeping up' with the threat.
