This market asks whether the Russo-Ukrainian War will end by December 31, 2027, via a formal peace treaty, armistice, or comprehensive ceasefire that ends major combat operations. External prediction markets show a ceasefire by end of 2026 at approximately 36.5% and a peace deal before 2027 at approximately 19.5%. The research digest confirms that while Ukraine has offered an unconditional ceasefire and some Ukrainian officials see a "chance" the active phase could end before 2027, Russia has rejected direct talks and FT reporting indicates Putin is unlikely to engage in meaningful peace negotiations until February 2027 at the earliest. A three-day US-brokered ceasefire collapsed in May 2026 amid mutual accusations. The current quote of 38 is slightly above the external market anchor of 36.5% for a 2026 ceasefire, but the market asks about end of 2027, giving more time for diplomatic developments. The quote is adjusted down to align with the external sentiment while accounting for the significant obstacles remaining.
Foreign Minister Sybiha says Ukraine ready for unconditional ceasefire but ending war would not be realistic without US involvement; wants legally binding security guarantees
Budanov said the active phase could end before 2027 but warned fighting may intensify first. He said negotiations moved at a promising pace in spring but both sides entered a cycle of escalation.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Kyiv is ready for an unconditional ceasefire but stressed that US involvement is essential for any peace settlement.
According to Financial Times sources, Putin does not plan to engage in meaningful negotiations until February 2027 at the earliest, expecting US pressure to force Ukraine into concessions.
Trump held separate calls with Putin and Zelensky on US Independence Day, offering to help end the war. Both leaders agreed to continue discussions at the NATO summit in Ankara July 7-8.
