This market asks whether Donald Trump will serve any consecutive 24+ hours in prison before January 1, 2035. The current quote is 10 cents (10% YES). The research digest confirms that all three criminal cases have effectively collapsed: (1) the hush money case resulted in a conviction but no prison time - Trump received unconditional discharge at sentencing in January 2025, and the appeal remains ongoing; (2) the classified documents case was dismissed by Judge Cannon in 2024 and DOJ dropped its appeal, with Cannon permanently blocking Jack Smith's report in February 2026; (3) the Georgia election interference case was dismissed in November 2025. Trump is currently a sitting president until January 2029, and DOJ policy prevents prosecution of sitting presidents. External sentiment from Manifold markets shows 7-16% probability of Trump serving prison time before 2030, with the 2035 market around 11-16%. The quote of 10 is already at the low end of the external consensus range. No new developments since the last repricing that would materially change the probability - the May 2026 developments (former prosecutor charged with stealing Smith report) are unrelated to Trump's criminal liability. The quote remains unchanged at 10.
Multiple legal tracks active including state appeal and federal immunity argument; Trump remains first convicted felon serving as president
79-year-old president turning 80 in June; doctor says 'excellent health' but recommends weight loss and more exercise
Carmen Lineberger, a former federal prosecutor, was charged on May 20, 2026 with stealing the sealed Jack Smith report on Trump's classified documents case. She allegedly saved it under the filename 'Bundt_Cake_Recipe.pdf' and emailed it to her personal account.
Carmen Lineberger accused of saving sealed report as 'Bundt_Cake_Recipe.pdf' and emailing to personal Gmail; faces up to 20 years
Appeal remains pending as of April 2026, with court rejecting request to pause proceedings
