This market asks whether Strait of Hormuz commercial vessel traffic reaches at least 69 vessels per day (50% of the 138-vessel pre-crisis baseline) for 14 consecutive days before January 1, 2027. Current traffic is severely depressed — Kpler data shows just 6 vessels on July 13 and 9 on July 15, representing roughly 5-7% of normal flow. The US-supported Omani corridor has become effectively non-functional after Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, with traffic shifting to Iranian-controlled routes or going "dark" with transponders off. External sentiment markets show only 38% probability of "normal" flow returning by year-end, suggesting the crowd views the 50% threshold as unlikely. With hostilities ongoing and no clear path to de-escalation, the probability of sustained traffic recovery to the 69-vessel threshold appears low.
Trump declares US 'guardian' of Hormuz; escalates pressure on Iran following vessel attacks and breakdown of June truce
All transits conducted with AIS transponders off as Omani corridor becomes non-functional amid renewed US-Iran hostilities
At least three pairs of tankers conducting STS transfers in Gulf of Oman as operators seek alternatives to strait transit
Operator confidence collapses after Iranian attacks on commercial vessels using US-coordinated corridor; traffic shifts to Iranian-controlled northern route
