This resolves YES only if measured commercial transits reach at least 69 per day for 14 consecutive days before 2027; declarations that the strait is open do not suffice. The latest reported counts are far below that threshold: AIS monitoring recorded 10 crossings on October 8, and another tracker reported two on October 11, while JMIC distinguishes facilitated passages from ordinary independent commercial traffic. A sustained recovery remains possible before year-end, but rising attacks, recent vessel sinkings, severe threat assessments, and stalled reopening talks make it very unlikely without a major security and political breakthrough. External sentiment searches did not surface a market matching this specific transit threshold.
Reporting described the sinking of a container ship after damage while transiting the strait and a second vessel sinking nearby; the incidents underscore continuing risks to commercial shipping.
Tehran says Washington accepted some conditions but left others unclear; the proposal offered normal passage within seven days if terms were met, while negotiations remain unresolved.
AIS monitoring recorded 10 commercial crossings on October 8, while another tracker reported two transits on October 11, far below the market’s 69-per-day threshold.
Lloyd’s List reported at least 13 attacks since September 28; separate maritime reporting described multiple tanker strikes and an inbound vessel turning back after an IRGC threat.
The latest daily counts remain far below 69; Kpler and LSEG reporting put October 6 at only 7–8 vessels, though dark transits remain a source of uncertainty.
