This market asks whether the Strait of Hormuz experiences a blockade (military-enforced restriction impeding commercial shipping) for at least 24 consecutive hours between June 19 and December 31, 2026. The strait is currently effectively closed—only about 9 commodity vessels transit daily versus 100+ before the war, a 90% reduction. The US naval blockade reimposed on July 14 remains in place, and while Trump paused strikes on August 1 claiming deal parameters were agreed, Iran denies any such agreement. Negotiations continue via Omani mediation, but Iran is demanding US/Israeli ships be banned from Hormuz and tolls be charged—positions Washington rejects. External markets show roughly 49% probability that traffic does NOT return to normal through year-end (Polymarket $160K volume), directly supporting this quote. The current 48 quote already reflects the ongoing blockade state; the external consensus confirms this as the fair price.
Tehran says deal with Oman getting close but won't fully reopen strait. Iran demands US and Israeli vessels be banned and tolls charged to other ships.
Secretary of State says Iran-Oman negotiations advancing but 'not finality yet.' Trump issues 'decapitation' threat if diplomacy fails.
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis claim strike on Saudi oil tanker 'Wafa' off Yanbu. This is the eighth Saudi oil tanker targeted since Houthi blockade began July 22.
Iran and Oman continue talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian diplomatic source told Al Jazeera the remaining issues 'do not appear to be particularly complex.' Trump has set a deadline of around August 5-6 for a deal.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said progress was made in Hormuz talks after Trump threatened 'decapitation' against Iran if negotiations fail and the strait remains blocked.
