This market asks whether the Strait of Hormuz will experience a new blockade (24+ consecutive hours of blocked commercial shipping) between now and December 31, 2026. The US lifted its naval blockade just yesterday (June 18) following a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire agreement signed June 17, and commercial transits have resumed on a limited basis. However, significant risks persist: the central shipping lane remains mined and unnavigable, Iran has already placed nuclear negotiations on hold due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and the threat level remains "moderate." External markets show strong consensus (85.5% YES, $2.4M volume) that traffic will return to normal by year-end, implying the ceasefire is expected to hold. Given the recent de-escalation and the crowd's confidence in sustained normalcy, the probability of a new blockade occurring this year appears low.
BIMCO, Lloyd's Market Association and Marsh advise shipowners to wait for clearer safety protocols; mine clearance operations ongoing with central lane still blocked
Iran placed nuclear negotiations on hold after Israel continued attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, arguing this breaches the MOU's opening clause requiring halt to all hostilities
US Central Command ends blockade operations after 2 months; 142 commercial vessels were redirected and 9 non-compliant vessels disabled during the blockade
Pakistan-brokered deal includes reopening of Hormuz, lifting of US blockade, and framework for nuclear program negotiations; Iran to charge no transit fees for 60 days
