This market asks whether any state-backed or military-enforced action significantly impeded commercial passage through the Strait for at least 24 consecutive hours during June 19–December 31, 2026; it does not require the strait to remain closed through year-end. Recent authoritative reporting documents continuing transits, so the latest attacks and turn-backs alone do not establish a new uninterrupted 24-hour shutdown, and the U.S. blockade described by CENTCOM targets Iranian ports rather than neutral Strait transit. However, the record since the start of the qualifying window includes prolonged, deliberate restrictions and closure-like conditions, while Iran continues to claim it will keep the route closed and coercive interference remains severe; the evidence therefore strongly favors that the threshold has been or will be met. External projections indicate prolonged disruption, but no exact-match probability for this 24-hour blockade test was available.
Reported crossings dropped to a recent low on October 6 before increasing the next day. Estimates vary, and reporting continued to show nonzero traffic, indicating severe disruption without confirming an uninterrupted shutdown.
UKMTO reported that an inbound tanker complied with an order by Iranian forces to turn back or be targeted. JMIC also reported multiple merchant-vessel strikes while noting that commercial transits continued; this documents coercive interference, not a confirmed 24-hour total closure.
Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait would remain closed until Iran’s seven conditions were met, while also leaving room for diplomacy. Late-September crude data nevertheless showed escorted traffic had recovered substantially.
Kpler data reported by CNBC put crude transits at a prewar-equivalent daily rate by September 28, while Al Jazeera characterized wider flows as near 80% of prewar levels and emphasized continuing attacks and insurance risks.
IMO confirmed vessels damaged in the Strait on September 29; Al Jazeera reported projectiles struck three ships that day. The attacks indicate acute danger but do not alone establish a sustained restriction on passage.
