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Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of criminal charges?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 6mo·$2.1K volume
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Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of State criminal charges?

74%

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of Federal criminal charges?

26%

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of No Charges?

4%
  1. Shared across 3 markets
    Plea talks held in federal case23d ago

    Defense and federal prosecutors discussed possible plea deal in late June 2026 but negotiations collapsed without agreement

  2. Shared across 2 markets
    Psychiatric defense withdrawn after 48 hours1mo ago

    Defense announced extreme emotional disturbance plan on June 17, then withdrew it June 18, citing prejudice to federal case where such defense is unavailable

  3. Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of State criminal charges?
    Psychiatric defense announced then withdrawn in 48 hours1mo ago

    Defense team announced intent to argue extreme emotional disturbance on June 17, then withdrew the strategy on June 18, 2026

  4. Shared across 2 markets
    Legal experts raise jury nullification concerns as Mangione trial nears1mo ago

    Legal experts analyze potential jury nullification concerns as Mangione's September 2026 state trial approaches

  5. Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of State criminal charges?
    Psychiatric defense emerges as potential strategy for Mangione1mo ago

    Experts suggest psychiatric defense may be Mangione's best argument in state murder trial