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When will the next crewed Moon landing occur?

2 outcomes·Resolves in 3y·$8.7K volume
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Will a crewed Moon landing occur in 2028?

55%

Will a crewed Moon landing occur in 2029?

30%
  1. Shared across 2 markets
    NASA maintains 2027 Artemis III demonstration schedule amid visible hardware integration19d ago

    NASA's August hardware update and the administrator's August 14 statement indicate continued movement toward a 2027 crewed low-Earth-orbit test, but this preparatory mission does not satisfy the lunar-surface landing criterion.

  2. Shared across 2 markets
    SpaceX Starship Flight 13 achieves successful splashdown1mo ago
  3. Shared across 2 markets
    Blue Origin pivots to redesigned launchpad after New Glenn explosion2mo ago
  4. Shared across 2 markets
    New Glenn explosion cause traced to first stage aft section2mo ago

    Investigation ongoing; early data points to issue in booster's rear section

  5. Shared across 2 markets
    Blue Origin adopts horizontal/vertical hybrid launch concept2mo ago

    New CONOPS enables end-2026 launch timeline; system was already in development for super-heavy New Glenn variant