Part of the When will the next crewed Moon landing occur? topic →
This market asks whether a crewed Moon landing will occur in 2029. The 2029 outcome serves as a realistic backup scenario if the primary 2028 target slips. The same risk factors apply—Blue Origin's launchpad damage from the May 2026 explosion and spacesuit delays that the OIG warns could push Artemis IV to 2031—but with an additional year to resolve technical issues. If 2028 fails due to lander delivery problems, suit unavailability, or integrated testing setbacks, 2029 becomes the next realistic window. China is not expected to achieve a crewed lunar landing before 2030, and no other national or commercial program appears capable of a crewed lunar landing by 2029, making this market primarily a bet on NASA's ability to execute the 2028 timeline or recover within one additional year.
Major setback for NASA's Artemis program as explosion damages Cape Canaveral launchpad, threatening Blue Moon lander delivery timeline
An explosion involving Blue Origin hardware could impact NASA's Artemis lunar landing timeline
China launched Shenzhou-23 with three astronauts to Tiangong space station for a year-long mission, studying long-duration human physiology for its crewed lunar program targeting 2030.
A 15-foot-tall crew cabin replica of Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander arrived at Johnson Space Center for mission simulations and design feedback ahead of Artemis missions.
SpaceX debuted the upgraded Version 3 Starship configuration on its 12th test flight, testing Raptor 3 engines and redesigned propulsion systems critical for in-orbit refueling and the Starship HLS lunar lander variant.
