Part of the When will the next crewed Moon landing occur? topic →
This market asks whether astronauts will actually reach the lunar surface and exit their spacecraft at any point in 2029; a scheduled mission alone would not count. NASA is still trying to preserve a 2028 crewed landing, but its 2027 precursor remains behind schedule and NASA's October update described a demanding sequence of lander tests and readiness work. A slip from 2028 into 2029 is therefore a credible possibility, though no 2029 landing is currently firmly scheduled and China's stated goal remains 2030. The quote reflects meaningful schedule-slip risk rather than a confirmed 2029 plan.
On October 23, NASA described efforts to retain a 2028 lunar landing despite a behind-schedule 2027 precursor and demanding readiness work for the SpaceX and Blue Origin landers.
A China Daily report said preparations for the 2030 crewed landing were advancing, citing work at Wenchang and a sequence of vehicle tests; the agency’s earlier 2026 update described the same program components and test milestones.
China is preparing a lunar-analog training ground in Xinjiang, while officials reported continued work on the Wangyu lunar spacesuit. The updates add evidence of preparation, but do not change the public target of a crewed landing by 2030.
Administrator Jared Isaacman’s Sept. 20 staff memo described schedule recovery work across rocket components, Orion, and Blue Origin’s pad and landers. Coverage said the slip threatens the 2027 rehearsal and could reduce NASA’s planned two landing opportunities in 2028 to one.
Chinese astronaut-center personnel said Wangyu suit development was progressing smoothly, with dozens of key technologies in place; the report framed the work as preparation for the 2030 lunar mission.
