Part of the When will the next crewed Moon landing occur? topic →
This market asks whether a crewed Moon landing will occur in 2029. If Artemis IV slips from its 2028 target, 2029 becomes the most likely fallback year. The same technical risks that threaten 2028 (spacesuit delays, Blue Origin recovery, Starship readiness) could materialize and push the first crewed landing to 2029. External sentiment shows roughly 46% probability for a crewed Moon landing before 2030, implying roughly 32% probability for 2029 specifically (after accounting for 2028). The current quote of 28 reflects this backup-year scenario.
Crew: Randy Bresnik (commander), Luca Parmitano (pilot), Andre Douglas and Frank Rubio (mission specialists). Mission targets summer 2027 launch for docking tests with Blue Moon and Starship.
Four astronauts named for Artemis III mission renamed to test docking with commercial lunar landers in low Earth orbit rather than attempt lunar landing
Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment (LCVG) features redundant cooling circuits for up to 8-hour spacewalks at the lunar south pole.
Axiom and Prada reveal Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment for AxEMU spacesuit, with NASA targeting 2027 in-space demonstration ahead of Artemis IV lunar landing
After May 28 pad explosion, Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp says company will repair LC-36 and resume launches before year end, preserving Blue Moon lander timeline for Artemis
