Part of the When will the next crewed Moon landing occur? topic →
This market asks whether a crew will actually land on the Moon and astronauts will exit onto its surface during calendar 2028, not merely whether NASA schedules a mission for then. NASA continues to target its first crewed landing for 2028, but Artemis III is a 2027 in-orbit test rather than a landing, and the precursor is behind schedule. NASA's October update also highlights a tight campaign to demonstrate and certify the commercial landers, leaving limited schedule margin. Those facts keep a 2028 landing plausible, but substantial execution risk tempers the probability.
On October 23, NASA described efforts to retain a 2028 lunar landing despite a behind-schedule 2027 precursor and demanding readiness work for the SpaceX and Blue Origin landers.
A China Daily report said preparations for the 2030 crewed landing were advancing, citing work at Wenchang and a sequence of vehicle tests; the agency’s earlier 2026 update described the same program components and test milestones.
China is preparing a lunar-analog training ground in Xinjiang, while officials reported continued work on the Wangyu lunar spacesuit. The updates add evidence of preparation, but do not change the public target of a crewed landing by 2030.
Administrator Jared Isaacman’s Sept. 20 staff memo described schedule recovery work across rocket components, Orion, and Blue Origin’s pad and landers. Coverage said the slip threatens the 2027 rehearsal and could reduce NASA’s planned two landing opportunities in 2028 to one.
Chinese astronaut-center personnel said Wangyu suit development was progressing smoothly, with dozens of key technologies in place; the report framed the work as preparation for the 2030 lunar mission.
