Part of the When will the next crewed Moon landing occur? topic →
This market asks whether a crewed Moon landing will occur in 2028. NASA targets Artemis IV as the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17, scheduled for early 2028. However, significant headwinds persist: the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion in May 2026 severely damaged the launchpad and could delay lunar lander deliveries by months, while the NASA OIG warns spacesuit delays could push Artemis IV to 2031. NASA Administrator Isaacman remains confident in the 2028 timeline, and both SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon are advancing toward flight readiness. The 2028 outcome hinges on whether these programs can overcome the combined challenges of lander delivery, spacesuit readiness, and integrated mission testing within the next two years.
Major setback for NASA's Artemis program as explosion damages Cape Canaveral launchpad, threatening Blue Moon lander delivery timeline
An explosion involving Blue Origin hardware could impact NASA's Artemis lunar landing timeline
China launched Shenzhou-23 with three astronauts to Tiangong space station for a year-long mission, studying long-duration human physiology for its crewed lunar program targeting 2030.
A 15-foot-tall crew cabin replica of Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander arrived at Johnson Space Center for mission simulations and design feedback ahead of Artemis missions.
SpaceX debuted the upgraded Version 3 Starship configuration on its 12th test flight, testing Raptor 3 engines and redesigned propulsion systems critical for in-orbit refueling and the Starship HLS lunar lander variant.
