Part of the When will the next crewed Moon landing occur? topic →
This market asks whether a crewed Moon landing will occur in 2028. NASA officially targets early 2028 for Artemis IV as the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo. However, significant hurdles remain: spacesuit development is 1.5+ years behind schedule per NASA OIG, Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket exploded in May 2026 (though recovery is progressing), and SpaceX's Starship HLS still requires orbital refueling demonstrations. External prediction markets show roughly 14% probability for a 2028 crewed landing. The current quote of 20 reflects the substantial technical and programmatic risks that could push the mission to 2029 or later.
Crew: Randy Bresnik (commander), Luca Parmitano (pilot), Andre Douglas and Frank Rubio (mission specialists). Mission targets summer 2027 launch for docking tests with Blue Moon and Starship.
Four astronauts named for Artemis III mission renamed to test docking with commercial lunar landers in low Earth orbit rather than attempt lunar landing
Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment (LCVG) features redundant cooling circuits for up to 8-hour spacewalks at the lunar south pole.
Axiom and Prada reveal Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment for AxEMU spacesuit, with NASA targeting 2027 in-space demonstration ahead of Artemis IV lunar landing
After May 28 pad explosion, Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp says company will repair LC-36 and resume launches before year end, preserving Blue Moon lander timeline for Artemis
