This market asks whether the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate of 7.0% or higher in any month from June 2026 through December 2028. The FOMC's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows the median unemployment rate declining from 4.4% in Q4 2026 to 4.3% in Q4 2027 and 4.2% in Q4 2028 — all well below the 7.0% threshold. Recent employment data supports this outlook, with 172,000 jobs added in May 2026 and 115,000 in April. The labor market is described as resilient with stable jobless claims around 225,000. No external prediction markets specifically address this unemployment threshold, so the quote reflects the base case of continued low unemployment per official projections, with a modest tail risk premium for potential economic shocks over the 2.5-year window.
If an NBER-dated U.S. recession begins by the end of 2027, will U-3 unemployment exceed 8% within 24 months of the business-cycle peak?
Will the US year-over-year CPI reach 5% or higher in any month of 2026?
If AGI is confirmed by the end of 2030, will U.S. unemployment exceed 8% within 18 months of confirmation?
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2027?
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2026?
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2028?
