Part of the When will the next NBER-dated U.S. recession begin? topic →
This market asks whether NBER will date a recession peak in or before December 2027. It is cumulative — if a recession begins in 2026, this market also resolves YES. External sentiment for 2026 alone sits at 17.5%, so this quote must be higher to account for additional recession scenarios that emerge in 2027. Wall Street analysts have specifically noted rising 2027 risks as 2026 odds decline. The NY Fed model shows ~15% probability 12 months ahead, but that window extends into early 2027. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index shows six-month growth remaining negative, signaling fragile conditions that could materialize in 2027.
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2026?
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2028?
If an NBER-dated U.S. recession begins by the end of 2027, will U-3 unemployment exceed 8% within 24 months of the business-cycle peak?
Will U.S. U-3 unemployment reach 7.0% or higher in any month through 2028?
