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When will the next NBER-dated U.S. recession begin?

3 outcomes·Resolves in 2y·$247 volume
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Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2028?

55%

Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2027?

35%

Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2026?

18%
  1. Shared across 2 markets
    Wall Street shifts recession risk outlook from 2026 to 20271mo ago

    Multiple financial institutions report declining 2026 recession odds while warning of increased 2027 risks, reflecting improved near-term economic outlook but persistent long-term concerns

  2. Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2026?
    Yield curve un-inverts after longest inversion since 19292y ago

    The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield curve turned positive in late 2024 after 700+ trading days underwater. Historical analysis shows un-inversions preceded recessions within 5-18 months, with average lag of 13 months.