Part of the When will the next NBER-dated U.S. recession begin? topic →
This market asks whether NBER will date a recession peak in or before December 2028 — the broadest window in the group. It is cumulative, encompassing all scenarios where recession begins in 2026, 2027, or 2028. The current quote of 55 reflects roughly even odds that a recession will have begun by the end of 2028. Given the historical pattern of recessions occurring every 4-8 years and the current expansion dating to 2020, the market prices meaningful recession risk within this extended timeframe. The research notes that NBER dating lags actual economic conditions, so a peak announced in 2028 could reflect downturn signs appearing in 2027 or earlier.
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2027?
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2026?
If an NBER-dated U.S. recession begins by the end of 2027, will U-3 unemployment exceed 8% within 24 months of the business-cycle peak?
Will U.S. U-3 unemployment reach 7.0% or higher in any month through 2028?
Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election be held on schedule with electoral votes counted by January 6, 2029?
