Part of the When will the next NBER-dated U.S. recession begin? topic →
This market asks whether the NBER will date a recession peak in or before December 2026. The yield curve has fully un-inverted (+0.39% as of June 12, 2026), ending the longest inversion since 1929. External prediction markets show 2026 recession odds at record lows of 14-17.5%, down dramatically from 36.9% a month prior. The FRED smoothed recession probability model shows just 0.44% for April 2026. The quote of 18 reflects the external consensus plus a small premium for historical yield curve signaling accuracy.
10Y-2Y spread turns positive at +0.39% as of June 12, 2026, ending the longest yield curve inversion since 1929
FRED smoothed recession probability at 0.44% for April 2026; Cleveland Fed model shows 12.5% probability of recession in one year, both well below threshold levels.
Prediction market odds fell from 36.9% to 14-17.5% in under a month as Iran war concerns eased, while 2027 odds remain elevated at 41%
The Leading Economic Index rose 0.1% in April to 97.4 but posted a 0.7% decline over six months, with negative growth rates signaling headwinds. GDP growth forecast at 1.7% for 2026.
Multiple financial institutions report declining 2026 recession odds while warning of increased 2027 risks, reflecting improved near-term economic outlook but persistent long-term concerns
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2027?
Will an NBER-dated U.S. recession begin by the end of 2028?
If an NBER-dated U.S. recession begins by the end of 2027, will U-3 unemployment exceed 8% within 24 months of the business-cycle peak?
Will U.S. U-3 unemployment reach 7.0% or higher in any month through 2028?
