If an NBER-dated U.S. recession begins by the end of 2027, will U-3 unemployment exceed 8% within 24 months of the business-cycle peak?

This conditional market asks: if an NBER-dated U.S. recession begins by end of 2027, will U-3 unemployment exceed 8% within 24 months of the business-cycle peak? Historical data provides the key input: only 4 of 13 post-WWII recessions (1973-75, 1981-82, 2007-09, 2020) saw unemployment exceed 8%, yielding a baseline rate of roughly 31%. Current conditions show unemployment at 4.3% with 2027 recession odds around 41% per external prediction markets. No direct external market exists for this specific conditional question, so the quote derives from the historical frequency of severe unemployment spikes during recessions, adjusted for the fact that any recession meeting the precondition would need to produce an unusually large employment shock to cross the 8% threshold from today's low base.