Part of the How far does U.S. democratic backsliding go by the end of 2029? topic →
This market asks whether the EIU Democracy Index will score the US below 7.0 through 2029. The current score is 7.65, down from 7.85 in 2024 - a 0.2-point drop in one year. At this rate of decline, the US would reach the 7.0 threshold in approximately 3-4 years. The US remains classified as a 'flawed democracy' but is trending toward the bottom of that category. The quote reflects the elevated probability given the proximity to the threshold and consistent downward trajectory.
Six of ten newly autocratizing countries in 2026 V-Dem report are in Europe and North America, including Italy, UK, and USA
Score declined to 7.65, six places lower than 2024, deepening 'flawed democracy' status
Will Freedom House score the United States below 75 in any Freedom in the World report through 2029?
Will V-Dem classify the United States as an electoral autocracy in any annual report through 2029?
Will Freedom House report a 21st consecutive year of global freedom decline in its 2027 report?
Will U.S. U-3 unemployment reach 7.0% or higher in any month through 2028?
