Part of the How far does U.S. democratic backsliding go by the end of 2029? topic →
This market asks whether Freedom House will score the US below 75 in any report through 2029. The current score is 84/100, up from 83, maintaining the 'Free' status despite noted institutional erosion. The 9-point gap to the 75 threshold is substantial - the lowest score recorded was 83 in 2024. While democratic erosion continues under current political conditions, a 9-point drop in four years would require a significant shock to democratic institutions. The quote reflects a modest probability of such a shock occurring.
Six of ten newly autocratizing countries in 2026 V-Dem report are in Europe and North America, including Italy, UK, and USA
Score slightly improved from 83, but concerns noted over polarization and electoral pressure
Will Freedom House report a 21st consecutive year of global freedom decline in its 2027 report?
Will the EIU Democracy Index score the United States below 7.0 in any annual report through 2029?
Will the U.S. dollar's share of allocated global FX reserves fall below 50% by the end of 2029?
