Will Freedom House report a 21st consecutive year of global freedom decline in its 2027 report?

This market asks whether Freedom House's Freedom in the World 2027 report will document a 21st consecutive year where countries with declines in political rights and civil liberties outnumber those with gains. The 2026 report (released March 2026) just confirmed the 20th consecutive year of decline, with 54 countries declining versus 35 improving in 2025. The prior 2025 report showed the 19th consecutive year (60 declined, 34 improved). This two-decade streak is driven by sustained pressures on media freedom, expression, and due process globally. The 2027 report will cover calendar year 2026 — we are now in mid-2026, so some 2026 data exists, but the full year's outcome remains uncertain. Given the remarkably consistent 20-year pattern and the structural drivers behind it, the probability of continuation is high, but the quote appropriately accounts for the inherent uncertainty of predicting a future report's findings.